Thursday, February 14, 2013

Opening Bell :-Markets to get a cautious start; inflation data to give direction

The US markets ended mixed, while the Asian markets have made a positive start

The Indian markets lost their steam in the final hours and the major indices barely managed to end in green despite a good trading throughout the day, while the broader indices remained under pressure till last. Today, the start is again likely to be cautious but positive, ahead of the WPI inflation numbers scheduled to be announced later in the day. There is wide expectation that the inflation figures cooled down to around 7% in January from its last month’s reading of 7.18%. 

Though, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has warned that the inflation still remains above its acceptable levels but a slowing trend may prompt it to opt a more lenient view. Today, the export oriented sectors will remain in upbeat mood after India's exports rose for the first time in nine months in January, albeit marginally. While, the trade deficit has now widened to nearly $20 billion from $16.7 billion a year ago. The PSU oil marketing companies too may remain buzzing on plan to raise petrol price by Rs 1 per litre and diesel by 50 paise a litre if they get the informal nod of oil minister Veerappa Moily.

There will be some big result announcements too during the day. Aditya Birla Nuvo, Austral Coke, CRISIL, Dr Reddys Lab, Elder Pharma, Gail India, HCL Infosystems, HDIL and SBI will be among many to announce their numbers today.


The major US indices once again made a mixed closing on Wednesday on uncertainty about the near-term outlook for the markets. After President Barack Obama's State of the Union address, traders concentrated on economic news where retail sales edged up by just 0.1 percent in January, while import prices rebounded by less than expected. The Asian markets have made a green start, the Japanese market too was trading higher ahead of the the conclusion of a two-day Bank of Japan policy meeting.

Back home, Wednesday’s trading session turned out to be unproductive for stock markets in India as the benchmark equity indices failed to sustain the gains they amassed in the early part of trade. The frontline gauges remained range-bound for most part of the session but drifted to lower levels in the last leg of trade to settle with trivial gains of one fourth of a percent. Investors resorted to profit booking mainly in the late trade ahead of the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) numbers which will decide the RBI’s future course of action. Earlier, after a positive start, frontline indices extended their rally as sentiments got some boost after India’s exports rose at an annual rate of 0.82% at $25.58 billion in January, with imports too rising by 6.12% at $45.58 billion for the month, leaving a trade deficit of $19.99 billion. Export and imports stood at level of $25.37 billion and at $42.95 billion respectively in January, 2012. 

However, exports between April and January fell 4.86% to $239.68 billion as against $251.93 billion in the same month of the previous year. Rally in software and technology counters too aided the sentiments after Nasscom reported that export growth from India’s IT outsourcing sector is set to accelerate in the fiscal year starting in April as hopes rise that an improving global economy will drive demand. 

The sector’s exports are expected to grow between 12 and 14 percent in 2013/14 to as much as $87 billion. On the global front, European counters traded little lower on Wednesday’s early deals. Back home, rally in cement sector too supported the sentiments as stocks like ACC, Ultratech Cement and Ambuja Cements edged higher on expectations that the government will provide thrust on infrastructure development in Union Budget 2013-14 to be tabled in the Parliament on February 28, 2013. However, Realty stocks which were up in early trade snapped the session among the worst sectoral performers by the end of trade. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 47.04 points or 0.24% to settle at 19,608.08, while the S&P CNX Nifty rose by 10.45 points or 0.18% to end at 5,932.95.


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