Monday, September 17, 2012

RBI monetary policy review

RBI keeps policy rates unchanged, CRR cut by 25bps .........

The Reserve Bank of India(RBI) on Monday kept the repo rate unchanged  in its mid quarter monetary policy review, but cut cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 25 basis point to 4.50 %.. The CRR cut will infuse Rs 1700 Cr in the banking system and it will hep to mitigate growth risks .

The Central bank's stance indicates that it is worried about the rise in inflation would happen due to diesel price hike . It will wait for some more time may be in the October policy review it might soften on its stance on interest rate.

Friday, September 14, 2012

Will RBI slash interest rates on Monday.....?

With the increase in diesel prices ,and the Wholesale price Index (WPI) for the month of August rose much above expectation to 7.55%
versus 6.87% in the month of July  will the Reserve Bank of India continue to remain hawkish , or can one expect a rate cut in the upcoming Monetary Policy review?

Well the Present scenario doesn't supports either CRR cut or Repo rate cut in the upcoming Monetary policy review.

Friday, September 7, 2012

Money Market Update............


Bond yields trade steady ahead of Rs 16,000 crore debt sale


The yields on 10-year benchmark 8.79% - 2021 edged 1 basis point higher at 8.17% from its previous close of 8.16%

Bond yields were trading almost steady ahead of Rs 16,000 crore debt sale auctions, scheduled to be held later in the day. However, little caution also prevailed as investors’ waited to see whether the government takes any steps on fiscal consolidation, including a diesel price hike ahead of its Mid-quarter policy review, on September 17, 2012.

On the global front, US Treasuries yields were trading steady in Asian trade on Friday after a sharp rise the previous day following the European Central Bank's much awaited announcement of a new bond-buying scheme and a raft of solid US economic data. Meanwhile, Brent futures fell below $113 per barrel on Friday ahead of a US jobs report, which is expected to give an indication of the economic health of the world's biggest oil consumer and also United States considered a release of emergency oil reserves, potentially much larger than the last one.

The yields on 10-year benchmark 8.79% - 2021 edged 1 basis point higher at 8.17% from its previous close of 8.16%.

The benchmark five-year interest rates rose 1 basis point to 7.16% from its previous close of 7.15%.
The Government of India has announced the sale (re-issue) of four dated securities for  Rs 16,000 crore on September 7, 2012, which includes (i) ‘8.07 percent Government Stock 2017-JUL’ for a notified amount of  Rs 4,000 crore (nominal) through price based auction; (ii) ‘8.15 percent Government Stock 2022’ for a notified amount of  Rs 7,000 crore (nominal) through price based auction; (iii) ‘8.97 percent Government Stock 2030’ for a notified amount of  Rs 3,000 crore (nominal) through price based auction; and (iv) ‘8.33 percent Government Stock 2036’ for a notified amount of  Rs 2,000 crore (nominal) through price based auction. The auctions will be conducted using uniform price method. The auctions will be conducted by the Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai Office, Fort, Mumbai on September 07, 2012 (Friday).



Commodity Update..........


Crude prices end marginally higher after ECBs announcement | US crude oil inventories declined 7.40 million barrels in the week ended August 31


Crude prices ended marginally higher on Thursday after the European Central Bank announced the new bond-buying program that is expected to help troubled economies of the euro area, though the gains were pared on a report that showed a steep drop in US oil inventories.

The weekly EIA oil report showed that US crude oil inventories declined 7.40 million barrels and gasoline stocks were down by 2.30 million barrels in the week ended August 31. While, the US oil output fell 12%, to its lowest level in a year due to precautionary rig shutdowns in the Gulf of Mexico.

Benchmark crude for October delivery gained $0.17 or 0.2 percent to close at $95.53 a barrel after trading in a range of $97.71 and $95.26 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for October delivery rose 40 cents, or 0.4%, to $113.49 a barrel on the ICE.

Gold knocks off six month high price level

Gold prices climbed to the highest level in six months on news that the European Central Bank outlined a plan to buy bonds in the open market in an effort to support the euro zone's flattering debt markets. The yellow metal also soared up as US jobs data signaled a tentative improvement in the labor market and also as investors spectacled on more widely watched August non-farm payrolls data, hoping for further insight on the health of the U.S. economy.

Gold futures for December-delivery soared by $11.60 or 0.7% at $1,705.60, on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. While, spot gold also inched up by 0.51 % at $1,701.50 an ounce.


Copper takes breather after three straight day gain

Copper prices drifted lower on Thursday, snapping three straight day gains despite positive news that the European Central Bank will undertake an aggressive bond-buying program to help rattling euro zone countries. The red metal however buoyed near six-week highs, it slipped in conjunction with weak US equities and a stronger dollar. The industrial metal also pared some gains as traders side lined as they went wary ahead of key non-farm payrolls report, which might signal more instinct on US economy.

Copper futures for December delivery slipped by 1.25 cents to settle at $3.5165 per lb, after dealing between $3.4925 and $3.5390, on the Comex metals division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Copper for three-month delivery on the London Metal Exchange eased by 0.4% to $7,710 per ton.

CLOSING BELL---------Bourses witness fabulous Friday; register triple digit gains


It was a Fabulous Friday for bourses, which registering triple digit gains salvaged all the losses incurred by Indian equity markets during previous trading sessions of the week. After getting a gap-up opening, Indian equity markets amassing gains steadily, ended near the high -point of the day. Sanguinity of global peers mainly perked up bourses, which showcased resilience in lights of reports suggesting Government ruling out immediate plan to raise domestic fuel prices. For the regular last trading session of week, 30 share barometer index of Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), Sensex, piercing through its 17,700 mark, ended a tad below its intra-day high level with gains of over two percentage points. Similarly, the widely followed index of National Stock Exchange (NSE), Nifty, too puffing over century of points, concluded above the 5300 bastion. Meanwhile, the broader indices too amassed gains, but in a proportion lesser than frontline indices. Country’s two leading bourses BSE and National Stock Exchange (NSE) will conduct special live trading session on September 8 in various segments such as futures & options.

Sentiment at Dalal Street were buttressed on widespread buying by funds and retail investors tracing firm overseas trend after European Central Bank unveiled a plan to buy the bonds of troubled euro-zone nations in a bid to tackle the region's long-running debt crisis. Asian pacific shares besides making merry out of announcement of new bond buying program called Outright Monetary Transactions, also celebrated China stimulus. Mainland Chinese and Hong Kong stocks posted their strongest performance in more than seven months on Friday after Beijing announced a slate of new infrastructure projects to spur a slowing economy. Additionally, European shares extended gains to hit a 13 month high on Friday, as investors bet big on an improvement in US jobs figures due later. Sentiments were further bolstered after German exports unexpectedly edged up in July.

Closer home, although buying witnessed was broad-based, stocks from Capital Goods, Realty, Metal and bankex counters were the best performers on the BSE sectoral front. However, PSU OMC’s stocks, viz, BPCL, HPCL and IOC lost all the steam gathered in the previous session, after Oil Minister S. Jaipal Reddy, denying the reports about oil price hike in the near term said that, “there is no immediate plan to raise domestic fuel prices. The market breadth on the BSE ended positive; advances and declining stocks were in a ratio of 1737:1122 while 140 scrips remained unchanged. (Provisional)

The BSE Sensex gained 348.13 points or 2.01% and settled at 17,694.40. The index touched a high and a low of 17,701.20 and 17,575.79 respectively. All 30 stocks were seen advancing on the index (Provisional)
The BSE Mid-cap index was up 1.07% while Small-cap index was up 0.77%. (Provisional)
On the BSE Sectoral front, Capital Goods was up 3.16%, Metal up 2.79%, Realty up 2.67%, Bankex up 2.32% and Consumer Durables up by 2.13% were the top gainers, while there were no losers in the space.

The top gainers on the Sensex were Tata Steel up 5.58%, ICICI Bank up 4.64%, Tata Motors up by 4.18%, L&T up 4.17% and Hindalco Industries up 3.64% while, there were no losers in the index. (Provisional)

Meanwhile, turning down the reports about oil price hike in the near term, Oil Minister S Jaipal Reddy said that, ‘there is no immediate plan to raise domestic fuel prices.’ Throwing the ball in Cabinet’s court, Oil Minister further added that it was now up to the cabinet to decide on the onerous issue of reducing hefty subsidies on diesel, cooking gas and kerosene.

Both oil and finance ministries have been pitching hard for a rise in fuel prices, since their subsidies are drag on India's fiscal deficit at a time of slowing growth. India is targeting a fiscal deficit of 5.1 per cent of GDP for this fiscal year. But a higher subsidy bill and lower tax revenue have resulted in its fiscal projections for 2011-12 go awry. The fiscal deficit of the country was 5.8 per cent in 2011-12, wider than the initial target of 4.6 per cent.

Taking a U-turn from his ministry’s earlier stance, Jaipal Reddy said that floating a cabinet note is different from taking action and no decision has been taken yet on fuel prices. With oil firms losing a record Rs 560 crore per day on sale of regulated diesel and cooking fuels and another Rs 16 a day on petrol, the Oil Ministry recently moved a note for the consideration of the Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs (CCPA) explaining the wobbly situation surrounding the oil sector.

Meanwhile, besides hike in diesel, cooking gas and kerosene prices, the Oil Ministry is also seeking to limit supply of subsidized LPG cylinders to 4-6 per household in a year. However, what government does as measure to avert a fiscal disaster and a sovereign credit downgrade to junk by global rating agencies remain a factor to watch for.

India VIX, a gauge for markets short term expectation of volatility lost 10.12% at 15.26 from its previous close of 16.98 on Thursday. (Provisional)

The S&P CNX Nifty gained 104.25 points or 1.99% to settle at 5,342.65. The index touched high and low of 5,347.15 and 5,309.20 respectively. 47 stocks advanced against 2 declining ones while 1 stock remained unchanged on the index. (Provisional)

The top gainers on the Nifty were DLF up 5.71%, Tata Steel up 5.55%, ICICI Bank up 4.58%, L&T up 4.25% and Tata Motors was up 4.05%. On the other hand, BPCL down 0.53% and Ranbaxy Laboratories down 0.03% were the only losers. (Provisional)

The European markets were trading in green with, France’s CAC 40 up 1.19%, Germany’s DAX up 0.79% and the United Kingdom’s FTSE 100 up 0.23%.

Asian shares ended with their biggest daily gain in six weeks on Friday on the back of celebratory mood in global markets after European Central outlined its bond-buying scheme to help calm the euro zone's debt crisis. Meanwhile investors covered their bearish bets as stronger-than-expected jobs data from U.S. private sector indicated good growth in the key U.S. non-farm payroll figures due out on Friday. Japan's Nikkei climbed around 2% on Friday to its biggest one-day percentage gain in five months.

Asian Indices
Last Trade
Change in Points
Change in %
Shanghai Composite
2,127.76
75.84
3.70
Hang Seng
19,802.16
592.86
3.09
Jakarta Composite
4,143.68
40.82
0.99
KLSE Composite
1,624.55
6.56
0.41
Nikkei 225
8,871.65
191.08
2.20
Straits Times
3,011.70
22.44
0.75
KOSPI Composite
1,929.58
48.34
2.57
Taiwan Weighted
7,424.91
98.19
1.34